Integrated modelling of insect population dynamics at two temporal scales

Population size of species with birth-pulse life-cycles varies both within and between seasons, but most population dynamics models assume that a can be characterised adequately by single number season. However, within-season sometimes too substantial to ignored when modelling seasons. Typical examples are insect populations or migratory animals. Numerous for only between-season exist, very few have combined at temporal scales. In new approach, we extend appreciably the Dennis et al. (2016b): show how adapt them generation time >1 year fit an integrated model multiple data types, maximising joint likelihood counts unmarked individuals capture–recapture from study marked individuals. We illustrate approach using annual monitoring endangered flightless beetle Iberodorcadion fuliginator 18 in Upper Rhine Valley 1998–2016, 2-year life cycle. Standard methods used fitting comparison, concentrated (profile) provides computational efficiency. Additional information makes more robust and, importantly, enables true, rather than relative, abundance estimated. A dynamic stopover estimates survival phenology parameters season, also productivity For I. fuliginator, demonstrate decline since 1998 this links productivity, which is affected temperature. delayed mean emergence date recent years shown. main point interest focus on two scales perhaps animal vary: short-term, seldom truly closed long-term (between seasons) it never is. Hence our may serve as template general description many species. This includes rare limited sets, there lack models, yet conservation actions greatly benefit kind models.